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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Crewe edge out Tranmere 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crewe beat Tranmere 2-1 at Alexandra Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 2.11 xG and Tranmere 1.25 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 1.13 / defence 0.97 against Tranmere attack 1.08 / defence 1.49, drawn from 80/79 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crewe 57% | Draw 21% | Tranmere 22%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 39%, Tranmere 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crewe's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Tranmere's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Crewe 1.46 PPG, Tranmere 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crewe win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights