Crewe vs Salford City – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Salford City at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crewe vs Salford City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 20 as Crewe welcome Salford City to Alexandra Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 17 December 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Crewe have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Crewe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crewe's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Alexandra Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Salford City stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 League Two matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Salford City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salford City away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Salford City's 2.80 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Crewe's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Crewe register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Salford City in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Crewe, 3 for Salford City and 2 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Crewe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Crewe in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Salford City in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crewe 58% versus Salford City 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crewe 47% | Salford City 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crewe 1.46 xG and Salford City 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crewe attack 1.049 / defence 0.988 | Salford City attack 1.474 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.143. Salford City have an above-average attack strength of 1.474 — the away xG of 1.67 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 60 Crewe games / 60 Salford City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crewe 32% | Draw 27% | Salford City 41%. Fair-value odds: Crewe 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Salford City 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Salford City as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Salford City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Crewe 70% | Salford City 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crewe vs Salford City | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Alexandra Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 17 Dec 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crewe 32% | Draw 27% | Salford City 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 64% | xG Crewe 1.46 / Salford City 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Crewe attack 1.049 / def 0.988 | Salford City attack 1.474 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Salford City (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Crewe xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Salford City xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crewe vs Salford City kick off?
Crewe vs Salford City is scheduled to kick off at 20:00 on Thursday 17 December 2026 at Alexandra Stadium.
Where is Crewe vs Salford City being played?
The match is being played at Alexandra Stadium.
What competition is Crewe vs Salford City part of?
Crewe vs Salford City is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crewe vs Salford City?
Our statistical model gives Crewe a 32% chance of winning, Salford City a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Salford City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crewe vs Salford City?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Crewe and Salford City will score (BTTS).
Will Crewe vs Salford City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Salford City?
Record (8 meetings): Crewe 3W | Draws 2 | Salford City 3W.
What form are Crewe and Salford City in?
Crewe (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Salford City (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Crewe's attack at 1.05x the league average against Salford City's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Salford City's attack versus Crewe's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
32%
3.09
27%
3.76
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Crewe xG
Total xG
3.13
1.67
Salford City xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
19%
5.29
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
6%
16.32
9%
10.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.7 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crewe vs Salford City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Crewe and Salford City expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Crewe and 1.67 for Salford City, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Crewe vs Salford City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Crewe have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 24W 17D 19L record — W-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Crewe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Salford City's form line: 34W 8D 18L from 60 games, 1.83 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Salford City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crewe on 1.48 PPG, Salford City on 1.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Crewe have posted 1.80 PPG from 30 outings (15W 9D 6L).
On the road, Salford City have gone 14W 3D 13L from 30 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Crewe are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Salford City are on 1.42 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 60 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crewe
Blended
Salford City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crewe and Salford City in coming into this match?
Crewe have gone 24W 17D 19L in their last 60 games (1.48 PPG), while Salford City have gone 34W 8D 18L in their last 60 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crewe at home or Salford City away?
Crewe's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crewe at home: 1.80 PPG; Salford City away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Crewe or Salford City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crewe have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Salford City in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crewe and Salford City runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Crewe have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Aug 2022, when Salford City won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Crewe's record when hosting Salford City specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Crewe
2
Draws
3
Salford City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Salford City?
From 8 meetings on record, Crewe have won 3, Salford City have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Crewe and Salford City last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Crewe 1-0 Salford City.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crewe 63%, Salford City 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Crewe) and 53% (Salford City).
On the defensive side: Salford City in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crewe home games / Salford City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crewe play Salford City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Crewe's games and 53% of Salford City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crewe vs Salford City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Crewe's recent games and 53% of Salford City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crewe and Salford City tend to score early?
Crewe have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Salford City in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.