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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Crewe edge out Colchester 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crewe beat Colchester 1-0 at Alexandra Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 1.57 xG and Colchester 1.52 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Colchester landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 1.28 / defence 1.14 against Colchester attack 1.10 / defence 0.97, drawn from 74/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crewe 39% | Draw 24% | Colchester 37%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 41%, Colchester 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crewe's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Colchester's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Crewe 1.40 PPG, Colchester 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crewe win broke the near-deadlock. Crewe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Colchester (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights