Crewe vs Bradford – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Crewe's attack at 1.09x the league average against Bradford's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bradford's attack (0.88x) against Crewe's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crewe Win
45%
2.21
30%
3.39
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Crewe xG
Total xG
2.25
0.92
Bradford xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
18%
5.56
7%
14.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.9 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crewe vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Crewe and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Crewe and 0.92 for Bradford, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Crewe vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.