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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Crewe cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Barrow.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crewe beat Barrow 3-1 at Alexandra Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 1.65 xG and Barrow 1.57 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Crewe beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 1.21 / defence 1.16 against Barrow attack 1.12 / defence 1.07, drawn from 71/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crewe 40% | Draw 24% | Barrow 36%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 40%, Barrow 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crewe's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Barrow's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Crewe 1.40 PPG, Barrow 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crewe win broke the near-deadlock. Crewe (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.51 average — above their attacking norm. Barrow (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights