Crawley Town 0-1 Wrexham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 62% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Crawley Town face Wrexham.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Crawley Town host Wrexham at Broadfield Stadium in League Two (matchday 12). Kick-off is Saturday 7 October 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Crawley Town have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Crawley Town have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Wrexham — last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Wrexham's away record over their last 5 away games: 1W 3D 1L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from their last 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Crawley Town at 1.70 PPG versus Wrexham's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Crawley Town in-play tendencies (last 11 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Wrexham in-play tendencies (last 11 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 54% versus Wrexham 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 64% | Wrexham 64%). Note also that Wrexham surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Crawley Town recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.79 xG and Wrexham 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 1.134 / defence 0.867 | Wrexham attack 0.663 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.540 / away 1.259. Wrexham's attack rating of 0.663 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.72. Data: built from Crawley Town's last 57 games and Wrexham's last 11.
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 62% | Draw 24% | Wrexham 14%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 1.61 | Draw 4.11 | Wrexham 7.28. The model has a clear lean to Crawley Town (62%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crawley Town at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Crawley Town's last 10 home games and Wrexham's last 5 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Crawley Town 40% (last 10 home games) | Wrexham 40% (last 5 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Wrexham | Competition: League Two, matchday 12 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 62% | Draw 24% | Wrexham 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Crawley Town 1.79 / Wrexham 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 1.134 / def 0.867 | Wrexham attack 0.663 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.540 / away 1.259 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Wrexham xG
44%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Crawley Town vs Wrexham FAQs
What time does Crawley Town vs Wrexham kick off?
Crawley Town vs Wrexham kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Wrexham?
Crawley Town 0 - 1 Wrexham.
Where is Crawley Town vs Wrexham being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Wrexham part of?
Crawley Town vs Wrexham is a League Two fixture (matchday 12) (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Wrexham?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 62% chance of winning, Wrexham a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Wrexham?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Crawley Town and Wrexham will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Crawley Town vs Wrexham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Crawley Town's attack at 1.13x the league average against Wrexham's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wrexham's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Crawley Town's last 57 games and Wrexham's last 11 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.0%), 1-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
62%
1.61
24%
4.11
14%
7.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.51
0.72
Wrexham xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
7.28
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
48%
2.06
17%
5.98
Win to Nil
30%
3.33
2%
43.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 10.5 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Crawley Town vs Wrexham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Wrexham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Wrexham expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Crawley Town and 0.72 for Wrexham, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Wrexham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Crawley Town's recent record stands at 6W 2D 3L from 11 games, a 1.82 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Wrexham, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 2L across 11 games — 1.55 PPG, with W-W-L-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crawley Town on 1.82 PPG, Wrexham on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Crawley Town have managed 4W 0D 1L from their last 5 home games — 2.40 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.82 PPG overall — Crawley Town are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Wrexham's away record stands at 1W 3D 1L across their last 5 away games, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crawley Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Crawley Town are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Wrexham are on 2.09 scored and 2.09 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Wrexham in 64%.
Last 11 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Wrexham
Blended
Crawley Town (Home) vs Wrexham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Crawley Town
Blended
Wrexham
Blended
❓ Crawley Town vs Wrexham Form FAQs
What form are Crawley Town and Wrexham in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 6W 2D 3L in their last 11 games (1.82 PPG), while Wrexham have gone 4W 5D 2L in their last 11 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Wrexham away?
Crawley Town's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 2.40 PPG; Wrexham away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2023. They cover more than one competition — League Two, League One. The most recent in our data was on 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Wrexham have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Apr 2024, when Wrexham won Wrexham 4-1 Crawley Town.
Crawley Town's record when hosting Wrexham specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Crawley Town
0
Draws
4
Wrexham
Recent Meetings
❓ Crawley Town vs Wrexham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Wrexham?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Crawley Town have won 0, Wrexham have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Wrexham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 February 2025: Crawley Town 1-2 Wrexham.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Wrexham?
Wrexham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Wrexham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 60%, Wrexham 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 80% (Crawley Town) and 20% (Wrexham).
On the defensive side: Wrexham in 40%; Wrexham in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Wrexham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Crawley Town vs Wrexham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Crawley Town and Wrexham matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 40% of Wrexham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Crawley Town and Wrexham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 80% of Crawley Town's recent games and 20% of Wrexham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Wrexham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 60% of Wrexham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wrexham defy the odds to beat Crawley Town 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wrexham beat Crawley Town 0-1 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.79 xG and Wrexham 0.72 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Crawley Town fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.13 / defence 0.87 against Wrexham attack 0.66 / defence 1.02, drawn from 57/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 62% | Draw 24% | Wrexham 14%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Wrexham win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 64%, Wrexham 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Wrexham's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.82 PPG, Wrexham 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wrexham win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Wrexham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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