🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Crawley Town and Walsall share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at The Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 12, as Crawley Town and Walsall drew 1-1 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 0.81 xG and Walsall 1.49 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.74 / defence 1.18 against Walsall attack 1.08 / defence 0.79, drawn from 11/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 20% | Draw 26% | Walsall 53%, with Walsall to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 56%, Walsall 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crawley Town's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Walsall's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Walsall arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights