🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Tranmere cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Crawley Town.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tranmere beat Crawley Town 0-2 at The Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.13 xG and Tranmere 1.34 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Crawley Town fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.83 / defence 1.19 against Tranmere attack 1.01 / defence 1.06, drawn from 4/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 31% | Draw 28% | Tranmere 41%, with Tranmere to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 55%, Tranmere 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crawley Town's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Tranmere's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Crawley Town 0.90 PPG, Tranmere 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tranmere win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Tranmere (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights