Crawley Town 3-2 Tranmere – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Crawley Town at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crawley Town vs Tranmere encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Crawley Town welcome Tranmere to Broadfield Stadium in League Two (matchday 8). Kick-off is Saturday 16 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Crawley Town stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Crawley Town have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Tranmere have recorded 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Tranmere have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Crawley Town are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Crawley Town have won 1, Tranmere 3, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Apr 2023, ended Crawley Town 2–1 Tranmere — a Crawley Town win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Crawley Town trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Tranmere trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 53% versus Tranmere 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 51% | Tranmere 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.63 xG and Tranmere 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 1.068 / defence 0.860 | Tranmere attack 0.707 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.220. Tranmere's attack rating of 0.707 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.74. Data: built from Crawley Town's last 53 games and Tranmere's last 53.
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 59% | Draw 25% | Tranmere 17%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 1.71 | Draw 4.03 | Tranmere 6.01. The model has a clear lean to Crawley Town (59%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crawley Town are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Crawley Town's last 10 home games and Tranmere's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Crawley Town 40% (last 10 home games) | Tranmere 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Tranmere | Competition: League Two, matchday 8 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 59% | Draw 25% | Tranmere 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Crawley Town 1.63 / Tranmere 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 1.068 / def 0.860 | Tranmere attack 0.707 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Tranmere xG
42%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Crawley Town vs Tranmere FAQs
What time does Crawley Town vs Tranmere kick off?
Crawley Town vs Tranmere kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Tranmere?
Crawley Town 3 - 2 Tranmere.
Where is Crawley Town vs Tranmere being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Tranmere part of?
Crawley Town vs Tranmere is a League Two fixture (matchday 8) (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Tranmere?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 59% chance of winning, Tranmere a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Tranmere?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Crawley Town and Tranmere will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Crawley Town vs Tranmere have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Crawley Town's attack at 1.07x the league average against Tranmere's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Tranmere's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Crawley Town's last 53 games and Tranmere's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.7%), 2-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
59%
1.71
25%
4.03
17%
6.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.38
0.74
Tranmere xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
6.01
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
28%
3.59
3%
30.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 11.3 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Crawley Town vs Tranmere Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Tranmere?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Tranmere expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Crawley Town and 0.74 for Tranmere, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Tranmere?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Crawley Town come into this having played 53 games, going 14W 15D 24L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W.
On the other side, Tranmere sit at 1.15 PPG from 53 outings (16W 13D 24L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crawley Town on 1.08 PPG, Tranmere on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Crawley Town's home form reads 12W 7D 7L across their last 26 home games, a 1.65 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Crawley Town are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Tranmere have taken 0.85 points per game from their last 26 away games (5W 7D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crawley Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Crawley Town are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Tranmere are on 1.00 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Early Season
Tranmere
Early Season
Crawley Town (Home) vs Tranmere (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Crawley Town
Early Season
Tranmere
Early Season
❓ Crawley Town vs Tranmere Form FAQs
What form are Crawley Town and Tranmere in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 14W 15D 24L in their last 53 games (1.08 PPG), while Tranmere have gone 16W 13D 24L in their last 53 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Tranmere away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.65 PPG; Tranmere away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Crawley Town or Tranmere been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crawley Town have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Tranmere in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from October 2021. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Crawley Town's record when hosting Tranmere specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Crawley Town
1
Draws
5
Tranmere
Recent Meetings
❓ Crawley Town vs Tranmere H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Tranmere?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Crawley Town have won 3, Tranmere have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Tranmere last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Crawley Town 1-1 Tranmere.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Tranmere?
Tranmere have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Tranmere are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 58%, Tranmere 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Crawley Town) and 27% (Tranmere).
On the defensive side: Crawley Town keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Crawley Town have failed to score in 27% of games; Tranmere in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Tranmere away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Crawley Town vs Tranmere Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Crawley Town and Tranmere matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 42% of Tranmere's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Crawley Town and Tranmere matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Crawley Town's recent games and 27% of Tranmere's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Tranmere matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 73% of Tranmere's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Crawley Town edge out Tranmere 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Tranmere 3-2 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.63 xG and Tranmere 0.74 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Crawley Town beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Tranmere outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.07 / defence 0.86 against Tranmere attack 0.71 / defence 1.07, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 59% | Draw 25% | Tranmere 17%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 51%, Tranmere 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Tranmere's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.08 PPG, Tranmere 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm. Tranmere (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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