Crawley Town vs Swindon Town Prediction & Preview

Poisson rates Swindon Town at 34% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crawley Town vs Swindon Town encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Crawley Town host Swindon Town at The Broadfield Stadium in League Two (matchday 37). Kick-off is Friday 26 March 2027 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Crawley Town — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Crawley Town have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Swindon Town stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Swindon Town's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Swindon Town — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Crawley Town have won 3, Swindon Town 3, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 8 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 7 Mar 2026, ended Crawley Town 2–2 Swindon Town — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Swindon Town in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 50% versus Swindon Town 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 45% | Swindon Town 59%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Crawley Town surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Swindon Town have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.13 xG and Swindon Town 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.812 / defence 1.346 | Swindon Town attack 0.740 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.143. Swindon Town's attack rating of 0.740 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.14. Crawley Town's defence rating of 1.346 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Swindon Town's projected output up. Data: built from Crawley Town's last 58 games and Swindon Town's last 60.

Result probabilities: Crawley Town 34% | Draw 32% | Swindon Town 34%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.98 | Draw 3.09 | Swindon Town 2.94. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 34% to win, with the draw at 32%. There is no result lean here.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Crawley Town 34% and Swindon Town 34%, with the draw at 32%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.

The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Crawley Town's last 10 home games and Swindon Town's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Crawley Town 40% (last 10 home games) | Swindon Town 20% (last 10 away games).

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