Crawley Town 3-2 Salford City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Salford City at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Salford City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Salford City make the trip to Broadfield Stadium to face Crawley Town in League Two, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 January 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Crawley Town (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crawley Town's home record at Broadfield Stadium: 5W 1D 4L from 10 League Two appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Crawley Town are significantly better at Broadfield Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Salford City have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Salford City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salford City's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Salford City are 0.50 PPG clear of Crawley Town in recent League Two fixtures (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Crawley Town, 1 for Salford City and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Crawley Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Salford City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 61% versus Salford City 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 56% | Salford City 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.10 xG and Salford City 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.961 / defence 1.130 | Salford City attack 1.274 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.059. Salford City have an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — the away xG of 1.53 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 70 Crawley Town games / 72 Salford City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 27% | Draw 27% | Salford City 46%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Salford City 2.17. Salford City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Salford City are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Salford City if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Crawley Town 50% | Salford City 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Salford City | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jan 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 27% | Draw 27% | Salford City 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Crawley Town 1.10 / Salford City 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.961 / def 1.130 | Salford City attack 1.274 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Salford City (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Salford City xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Salford City kick off?
Crawley Town vs Salford City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 January 2023 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Salford City?
Crawley Town 3 - 2 Salford City.
Where is Crawley Town vs Salford City being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Salford City part of?
Crawley Town vs Salford City is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Salford City?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 27% chance of winning, Salford City a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Salford City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Salford City?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Crawley Town and Salford City will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Salford City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Salford City?
Record (3 meetings): Crawley Town 1W | Draws 1 | Salford City 1W.
What form are Crawley Town and Salford City in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Salford City (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Crawley Town's attack rating (0.96) and Salford City's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Salford City's attack (1.27x) against Crawley Town's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 70/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
27%
3.77
27%
3.65
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.63
1.53
Salford City xG
3.77
27%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
6%
17.34
15%
6.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 11.0 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Salford City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Salford City expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.53 for Salford City, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Salford City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 70 outings, Crawley Town have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 22W 17D 31L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Salford City's form line: 31W 17D 22L from 70 games, 1.57 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Salford City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Crawley Town against 1.57 for Salford City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Crawley Town have posted 1.40 PPG from 35 outings (14W 7D 14L).
On the road, Salford City have gone 16W 6D 13L from 35 away games — 1.54 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Crawley Town are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Salford City are on 1.34 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crawley Town have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Salford City in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Salford City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Salford City in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 22W 17D 31L in their last 70 games (1.19 PPG), while Salford City have gone 31W 17D 22L in their last 70 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Salford City away?
Salford City's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.40 PPG; Salford City away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Crawley Town or Salford City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crawley Town have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Salford City in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crawley Town have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Salford City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Crawley Town
3
Draws
3
Salford City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Salford City?
From 8 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 2, Salford City have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Salford City last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Crawley Town 0-0 Salford City.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Salford City?
Salford City have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 57%, Salford City 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Crawley Town) and 40% (Salford City).
On the defensive side: Salford City in 40%; Crawley Town have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Salford City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Salford City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 46% of Salford City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Salford City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Crawley Town's recent games and 40% of Salford City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Salford City tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Salford City in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Crawley Town defy the odds to beat Salford City 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Salford City 3-2 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.10 xG and Salford City 1.53 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Crawley Town beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.96 / defence 1.13 against Salford City attack 1.27 / defence 0.94, drawn from 70/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 27% | Draw 27% | Salford City 46%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Crawley Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 56%, Salford City 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Salford City's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.19 PPG, Salford City 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm. Salford City (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.