Crawley Town vs Oldham – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Oldham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Oldham travel to The Broadfield Stadium to take on Crawley Town. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 January 2027, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Crawley Town — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crawley Town at The Broadfield Stadium this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Oldham stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Oldham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oldham away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Oldham — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Crawley Town have won 0, Oldham 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 0–2 with Oldham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (55 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Oldham in-play and half-time data (55 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 49% versus Oldham 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 46% | Oldham 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.27 xG and Oldham 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.820 / defence 1.332 | Oldham attack 0.887 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.019. Data: 55 Crawley Town games / 56 Oldham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 36% | Draw 31% | Oldham 33%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Oldham 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crawley Town at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Oldham (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Crawley Town 40% | Oldham 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Oldham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: The Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 36% | Draw 31% | Oldham 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG Crawley Town 1.27 / Oldham 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.820 / def 1.332 | Oldham attack 0.887 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Oldham xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Oldham kick off?
Crawley Town vs Oldham is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at The Broadfield Stadium.
Where is Crawley Town vs Oldham being played?
The match is being played at The Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Oldham part of?
Crawley Town vs Oldham is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Oldham?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 36% chance of winning, Oldham a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Oldham?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Crawley Town and Oldham will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Oldham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Oldham?
Record (4 meetings): Crawley Town 0W | Draws 3 | Oldham 1W.
What form are Crawley Town and Oldham in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Oldham (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Crawley Town's attack rating (0.82) and Oldham's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Oldham's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
36%
2.78
31%
3.19
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.48
1.20
Oldham xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
11%
9.26
9%
10.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.1 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.9 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Oldham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Oldham expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.20 for Oldham, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Oldham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Crawley Town have picked up 0.82 PPG on a 9W 18D 28L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Oldham's form line: 21W 15D 19L from 55 games, 1.42 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W. The sample for Oldham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Oldham are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Crawley Town.
Venue Form
On home soil, Crawley Town have posted 1.00 PPG from 26 outings (5W 11D 10L).
On the road, Oldham have gone 8W 6D 12L from 26 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Crawley Town are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Oldham are on 1.33 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Oldham in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Oldham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Oldham in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 9W 18D 28L in their last 55 games (0.82 PPG), while Oldham have gone 21W 15D 19L in their last 55 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Oldham away?
Oldham's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.00 PPG; Oldham away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Crawley Town or Oldham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crawley Town have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Oldham in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Crawley Town's record when hosting Oldham specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Crawley Town
3
Draws
1
Oldham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Oldham?
From 4 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 0, Oldham have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Oldham last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Oldham 2-0 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Oldham?
Oldham have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Oldham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 54%, Oldham 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Crawley Town) and 54% (Oldham).
On the defensive side: Oldham in 31%; Crawley Town have failed to score in 31% of games; Oldham in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Oldham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Oldham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 46% of Oldham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Oldham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Crawley Town's recent games and 54% of Oldham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Oldham tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Oldham in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.