Crawley Town 3-2 Mansfield Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mansfield Town at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Broadfield Stadium plays host to Crawley Town versus Mansfield Town in League Two, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 22 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Crawley Town have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crawley Town's home record at Broadfield Stadium: 5W 0D 5L from 10 League Two appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Crawley Town are significantly better at Broadfield Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Mansfield Town (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 League Two outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mansfield Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mansfield Town's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Mansfield Town arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Crawley Town, 2 for Mansfield Town and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2022, ended 0–2 with Mansfield Town winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Crawley Town — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Mansfield Town — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 61% versus Mansfield Town 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 56% | Mansfield Town 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.15 xG and Mansfield Town 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 1.074 / defence 1.280 | Mansfield Town attack 1.179 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.025. Data: 59 Crawley Town games / 59 Mansfield Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 28% | Draw 25% | Mansfield Town 47%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | Mansfield Town 2.13. Mansfield Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mansfield Town as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mansfield Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Crawley Town 40% | Mansfield Town 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 28% | Draw 25% | Mansfield Town 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Crawley Town 1.15 / Mansfield Town 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 1.074 / def 1.280 | Mansfield Town attack 1.179 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: Mansfield Town (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Mansfield Town xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town?
Crawley Town 3 - 2 Mansfield Town.
Where is Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town part of?
Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 28% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mansfield Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Crawley Town and Mansfield Town will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Mansfield Town?
Record (2 meetings): Crawley Town 0W | Draws 0 | Mansfield Town 2W.
What form are Crawley Town and Mansfield Town in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Mansfield Town (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Crawley Town's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Mansfield Town's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — Mansfield Town's attack (1.18x) against Crawley Town's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mansfield Town Win
28%
3.55
25%
3.96
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.69
1.55
Mansfield Town xG
3.55
28%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
21%
4.69
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
6%
16.65
15%
6.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.5 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.55 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Crawley Town come into this having played 59 games, going 19W 13D 27L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mansfield Town sit at 1.73 PPG from 59 outings (30W 12D 17L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Mansfield Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mansfield Town carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Crawley Town's home form reads 11W 6D 12L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.34 PPG return.
Away from home, Mansfield Town have taken 1.45 points per game from 29 outings (12W 6D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Crawley Town are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 1.46 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crawley Town have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Mansfield Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 19W 13D 27L in their last 59 games (1.19 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 30W 12D 17L in their last 59 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Mansfield Town away?
Mansfield Town's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.34 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Crawley Town or Mansfield Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crawley Town have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Mansfield Town in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mansfield Town won 4-1 on 1 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crawley Town have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Mansfield Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Crawley Town
0
Draws
5
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Mansfield Town?
From 8 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 3, Mansfield Town have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Mansfield Town last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2025, when Mansfield Town 0-1 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Mansfield Town?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 62%, Mansfield Town 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Crawley Town) and 48% (Mansfield Town).
On the defensive side: Mansfield Town in 31%; Crawley Town have failed to score in 28% of games; Mansfield Town in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Mansfield Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Crawley Town's games and 48% of Mansfield Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Crawley Town's recent games and 48% of Mansfield Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Mansfield Town tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Mansfield Town in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Crawley Town defy the odds to beat Mansfield Town 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Mansfield Town 3-2 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.15 xG and Mansfield Town 1.55 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Crawley Town beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.07 / defence 1.28 against Mansfield Town attack 1.18 / defence 0.88, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 28% | Draw 25% | Mansfield Town 47%, with Mansfield Town to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Crawley Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 56%, Mansfield Town 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Mansfield Town's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Mansfield Town arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.19. Form was overturned, with Crawley Town winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Crawley Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.