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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Crawley Town edge out Fleetwood Town 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crawley Town beat Fleetwood Town 2-1 at The Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.31 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.11 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.01 / defence 1.01 against Fleetwood Town attack 0.93 / defence 0.95, drawn from 14/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 41% | Draw 27% | Fleetwood Town 31%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 55%, Fleetwood Town 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crawley Town's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Fleetwood Town's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Fleetwood Town arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Crawley Town winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights