Crawley Town 1-1 Doncaster – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 56%, yet in-form Doncaster provide a compelling counter-argument — this Crawley Town vs Doncaster fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Broadfield Stadium plays host to Crawley Town versus Doncaster in League Two, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Tuesday 21 March 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Crawley Town have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Crawley Town's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Broadfield Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Crawley Town are significantly better at Broadfield Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Doncaster (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Doncaster's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Doncaster are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Crawley Town, 1 for Doncaster and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2022, ended 1–4 with Doncaster winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Crawley Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (81 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Doncaster goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (81 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 59% versus Doncaster 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 56% | Doncaster 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.95 xG and Doncaster 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 1.289 / defence 1.386 | Doncaster attack 0.755 / defence 1.289. League average goals — home 1.174 / away 1.079. Crawley Town carry an above-average attack strength of 1.289 — their λ of 1.95 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Doncaster bring a strong defensive rating of 1.289 — this is suppressing Crawley Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 81 Crawley Town games / 36 Doncaster games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 56% | Draw 23% | Doncaster 21%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Doncaster 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Crawley Town (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crawley Town at 56% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Doncaster (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Crawley Town 60% | Doncaster 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Doncaster | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Mar 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 56% | Draw 23% | Doncaster 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 58% | xG Crawley Town 1.95 / Doncaster 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 1.289 / def 1.386 | Doncaster attack 0.755 / def 1.289 | league avg home 1.174 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Doncaster xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Doncaster kick off?
Crawley Town vs Doncaster kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 21 March 2023 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Doncaster?
Crawley Town 1 - 1 Doncaster.
Where is Crawley Town vs Doncaster being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Doncaster part of?
Crawley Town vs Doncaster is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Doncaster?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 56% chance of winning, Doncaster a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Doncaster?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Crawley Town and Doncaster will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Doncaster have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Doncaster?
Record (1 meetings): Crawley Town 0W | Draws 0 | Doncaster 1W.
What form are Crawley Town and Doncaster in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Doncaster (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Crawley Town's attack at 1.29x the league average against Doncaster's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Doncaster's attack (0.76x) against Crawley Town's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 81/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
56%
1.78
23%
4.43
21%
4.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
3.08
1.13
Doncaster xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
4.69
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
14%
7.04
Win to Nil
18%
5.51
3%
33.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.1 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Doncaster?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Doncaster expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.13 for Doncaster, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Doncaster?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Crawley Town's recent record stands at 25W 18D 38L from 81 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Doncaster, meanwhile, have gone 25W 13D 43L across 81 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Crawley Town against 1.09 for Doncaster. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Crawley Town have managed 16W 8D 15L from 39 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Doncaster's away record stands at 8W 9D 22L across 39 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crawley Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Crawley Town are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Doncaster are on 0.93 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 81 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Current Season
Doncaster
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Doncaster in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 25W 18D 38L in their last 81 games (1.15 PPG), while Doncaster have gone 25W 13D 43L in their last 81 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Doncaster away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.44 PPG; Doncaster away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Doncaster go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Doncaster won 4-1 on 24 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crawley Town have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Doncaster — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Crawley Town
1
Draws
3
Doncaster
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Doncaster?
From 4 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 0, Doncaster have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Doncaster last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2024, when Crawley Town 0-2 Doncaster.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Doncaster?
Doncaster have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Doncaster are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 62%, Doncaster 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Crawley Town) and 54% (Doncaster). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Crawley Town have failed to score in 26% of games; Doncaster in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Doncaster away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Doncaster?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 41% of Doncaster's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Doncaster usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Crawley Town's matches and 54% of Doncaster's.
Do Crawley Town and Doncaster tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Doncaster in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crawley Town and Doncaster share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 27, as Crawley Town and Doncaster drew 1-1 in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.95 xG and Doncaster 1.13 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Crawley Town fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.29 / defence 1.39 against Doncaster attack 0.76 / defence 1.29, drawn from 81/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 56% | Draw 23% | Doncaster 21%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 56%, Doncaster 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (81 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Doncaster's trading profile (81 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.15 PPG, Doncaster 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Doncaster (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.