Crawley Town 0-0 Colchester – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Crawley Town at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crawley Town vs Colchester encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Crawley Town host Colchester at Broadfield Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 43. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 18 April 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crawley Town stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Crawley Town at Broadfield Stadium this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all League Two games this season, Colchester have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in League Two this season, Colchester have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Crawley Town have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Crawley Town, 0 for Colchester and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (88 games, 44 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Colchester in-play and half-time data (88 games, 44 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 59% versus Colchester 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 54% | Colchester 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.26 xG and Colchester 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 1.152 / defence 1.159 | Colchester attack 0.959 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.199 / away 1.052. Data: 88 Crawley Town games / 88 Colchester games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 37% | Draw 31% | Colchester 32%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Colchester 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crawley Town at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 80% | Colchester 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Colchester | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 18 Apr 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 37% | Draw 31% | Colchester 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Crawley Town 1.26 / Colchester 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 1.152 / def 1.159 | Colchester attack 0.959 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.199 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Colchester xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Colchester kick off?
Crawley Town vs Colchester kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 18 April 2023 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Colchester?
Crawley Town 0 - 0 Colchester.
Where is Crawley Town vs Colchester being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Colchester part of?
Crawley Town vs Colchester is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Colchester?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 37% chance of winning, Colchester a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Colchester?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Crawley Town and Colchester will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Colchester have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Colchester?
Record (3 meetings): Crawley Town 2W | Draws 1 | Colchester 0W.
What form are Crawley Town and Colchester in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Colchester (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Crawley Town's attack rating (1.15) and Colchester's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Colchester's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 88/88 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
37%
2.73
31%
3.19
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.43
1.17
Colchester xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
11%
8.80
9%
10.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.3 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.0 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Colchester?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Colchester expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.17 for Colchester, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Colchester?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 88 outings, Crawley Town have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 27W 21D 40L record — D-L-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Colchester's form line: 25W 25D 38L from 88 games, 1.14 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crawley Town on 1.16 PPG, Colchester on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Crawley Town have posted 1.48 PPG from 44 outings (18W 11D 15L).
On the road, Colchester have gone 14W 7D 23L from 44 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Crawley Town are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Colchester are on 1.00 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 88 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Current Season
Colchester
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Colchester in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 27W 21D 40L in their last 88 games (1.16 PPG), while Colchester have gone 25W 25D 38L in their last 88 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Colchester away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.48 PPG; Colchester away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Crawley Town's record when hosting Colchester specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Crawley Town
4
Draws
1
Colchester
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Colchester?
From 8 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 3, Colchester have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Colchester last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Colchester 0-0 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Colchester?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Colchester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 61%, Colchester 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Crawley Town) and 46% (Colchester).
On the defensive side: Colchester in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Colchester away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Colchester?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 43% of Colchester's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Colchester usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Crawley Town's recent games and 46% of Colchester's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Colchester tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Colchester in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Crawley Town's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 43, as Crawley Town and Colchester drew 0-0 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.26 xG and Colchester 1.17 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Crawley Town fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Colchester landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.15 / defence 1.16 against Colchester attack 0.96 / defence 0.91, drawn from 88/88 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 37% | Draw 31% | Colchester 32%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 54%, Colchester 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Colchester's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.16 PPG, Colchester 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line. Colchester (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.