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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Crawley Town and Colchester share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crawley Town and Colchester finished level at 1-1 at The Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.44 xG and Colchester 1.69 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.04 / defence 1.09 against Colchester attack 1.22 / defence 1.02, drawn from 21/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 32% | Draw 25% | Colchester 43%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 57%, Colchester 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crawley Town's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Colchester's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Colchester arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights