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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Crawley Town and Chesterfield share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crawley Town and Chesterfield finished level at 1-1 at The Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.25 xG and Chesterfield 1.69 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.90 / defence 1.25 against Chesterfield attack 1.16 / defence 1.12, drawn from 33/78 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 28% | Draw 24% | Chesterfield 48%, with Chesterfield to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 54%, Chesterfield 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crawley Town's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Chesterfield's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Chesterfield arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights