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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bromley cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Crawley Town.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bromley beat Crawley Town 1-3 at The Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.38 xG and Bromley 1.37 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Bromley outscored their 1.37 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.02 / defence 1.06 against Bromley attack 1.07 / defence 1.01, drawn from 22/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 37% | Draw 26% | Bromley 37%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Bromley win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 56%, Bromley 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crawley Town's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Bromley's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bromley arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.96. Form held, and they took the win. Crawley Town (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bromley (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights