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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Crawley Town run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Bristol Rovers.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crawley Town beat Bristol Rovers 4-0 at The Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.20 xG and Bristol Rovers 1.25 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Crawley Town beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bristol Rovers landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.80 / defence 1.11 against Bristol Rovers attack 0.96 / defence 1.12, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 35% | Draw 27% | Bristol Rovers 37%, with Bristol Rovers to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Crawley Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 54%, Bristol Rovers 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crawley Town's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Bristol Rovers's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Crawley Town 0.93 PPG, Bristol Rovers 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Bristol Rovers (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights