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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Barrow edge out Crawley Town 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Barrow beat Crawley Town 1-2 at The Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 0.94 xG and Barrow 1.13 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Barrow outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.79 / defence 1.13 against Barrow attack 0.87 / defence 0.95, drawn from 9/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 30% | Draw 30% | Barrow 40%, with Barrow to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 54%, Barrow 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crawley Town's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Barrow's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Crawley Town 0.98 PPG, Barrow 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Barrow win broke the near-deadlock. Barrow (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights