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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Colchester edge out Walsall 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Colchester beat Walsall 2-1 at JobServe Community Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Colchester 1.08 xG and Walsall 0.96 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Colchester beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colchester attack 0.88 / defence 0.80 against Walsall attack 1.03 / defence 0.92, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Colchester 37% | Draw 33% | Walsall 31%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colchester 45%, Walsall 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Colchester's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Walsall's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Walsall arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Colchester winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights