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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Colchester and Tranmere share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Colchester and Tranmere finished level at 1-1 at Colchester Community Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Colchester 1.40 xG and Tranmere 0.98 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colchester attack 0.94 / defence 0.84 against Tranmere attack 1.03 / defence 1.09, drawn from 46/46 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Colchester 46% | Draw 28% | Tranmere 26%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colchester 35%, Tranmere 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Colchester's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Tranmere's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Colchester 1.46 PPG, Tranmere 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Tranmere (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights