Colchester vs Swindon Town – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Colchester's attack at 0.92x the league average against Swindon Town's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Swindon Town's attack (1.04x) against Colchester's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colchester Win
40%
2.50
27%
3.72
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Colchester xG
Total xG
2.65
1.25
Swindon Town xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
11%
8.76
8%
12.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.4 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Colchester vs Swindon Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Colchester and Swindon Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Colchester and 1.25 for Swindon Town, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Colchester vs Swindon Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.