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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Colchester cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Shrewsbury.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Colchester beat Shrewsbury 2-0 at Colchester Community Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Colchester 2.11 xG and Shrewsbury 0.73 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colchester attack 1.08 / defence 0.84 against Shrewsbury attack 0.73 / defence 1.54, drawn from 74/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Colchester 69% | Draw 19% | Shrewsbury 12%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 69%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colchester 34%, Shrewsbury 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Colchester's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Shrewsbury's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Colchester arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.76. Form held, and they took the win. Colchester (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights