Colchester 2-1 Salford City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Salford City at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Colchester vs Salford City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 23 as Colchester welcome Salford City to JobServe Community Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 22 December 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Colchester have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Colchester, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Colchester at JobServe Community Stadium this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Salford City — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Salford City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salford City away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Colchester) versus 1.00 (Salford City). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Colchester, 1 for Salford City and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2023, ended 1–0 with Colchester winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Colchester trading profile (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Salford City trading profile (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Colchester 53% versus Salford City 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Colchester 44% | Salford City 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colchester 1.29 xG and Salford City 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colchester attack 0.930 / defence 1.371 | Salford City attack 1.082 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.272. Data: 68 Colchester games / 67 Salford City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Colchester 25% | Draw 24% | Salford City 50%. Fair-value odds: Colchester 4.00 | Draw 4.17 | Salford City 2.00. Salford City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.29 / 1.89) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Salford City as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Salford City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Colchester 90% | Salford City 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colchester vs Salford City | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: JobServe Community Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 22 Dec 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colchester 25% | Draw 24% | Salford City 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Colchester 1.29 / Salford City 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: Colchester attack 0.930 / def 1.371 | Salford City attack 1.082 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Salford City (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Colchester xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Salford City xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Colchester vs Salford City kick off?
Colchester vs Salford City kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 22 December 2023 at JobServe Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Colchester vs Salford City?
Colchester 2 - 1 Salford City.
Where is Colchester vs Salford City being played?
The match is being played at JobServe Community Stadium.
What competition is Colchester vs Salford City part of?
Colchester vs Salford City is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Colchester vs Salford City?
Our statistical model gives Colchester a 25% chance of winning, Salford City a 50% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Salford City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Colchester vs Salford City?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Colchester and Salford City will score (BTTS).
Will Colchester vs Salford City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Colchester and Salford City?
Record (4 meetings): Colchester 2W | Draws 1 | Salford City 1W.
What form are Colchester and Salford City in?
Colchester (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Salford City (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Colchester's attack at 0.93x the league average against Salford City's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Salford City's attack versus Colchester's defence, projects 1.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
25%
3.94
24%
4.14
50%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Colchester xG
Total xG
3.18
1.89
Salford City xG
3.94
25%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
1.98
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
15%
6.61
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
4%
26.02
14%
7.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.8 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.1 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Colchester vs Salford City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Colchester and Salford City expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Colchester and 1.89 for Salford City, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Colchester vs Salford City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Colchester come into this having played 68 games, going 18W 15D 35L for 1.01 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Colchester is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Salford City sit at 1.44 PPG from 68 outings (28W 14D 26L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Salford City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Salford City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Colchester — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Colchester's home form reads 9W 11D 14L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Salford City have taken 1.56 points per game from 34 outings (16W 5D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Salford City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Colchester are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Salford City are on 1.50 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 68 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colchester
Blended
Salford City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Colchester and Salford City in coming into this match?
Colchester have gone 18W 15D 35L in their last 68 games (1.01 PPG), while Salford City have gone 28W 14D 26L in their last 68 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Colchester at home or Salford City away?
Salford City's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Colchester at home: 1.12 PPG; Salford City away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Salford City have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jan 2022, when Colchester won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Colchester's record when hosting Salford City specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Colchester
2
Draws
5
Salford City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Colchester and Salford City?
From 10 meetings on record, Colchester have won 3, Salford City have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Colchester and Salford City last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Colchester 0-1 Salford City.
Who has won more matches between Colchester and Salford City?
Salford City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Colchester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Colchester 59%, Salford City 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Colchester) and 56% (Salford City).
On the defensive side: Colchester have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colchester home games / Salford City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Colchester play Salford City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Colchester's games and 59% of Salford City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Colchester vs Salford City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Colchester's recent games and 56% of Salford City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Colchester and Salford City tend to score early?
Colchester have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Salford City in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Colchester defy the odds to beat Salford City 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colchester beat Salford City 2-1 at JobServe Community Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colchester 1.29 xG and Salford City 1.89 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Salford City landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colchester attack 0.93 / defence 1.37 against Salford City attack 1.08 / defence 0.90, drawn from 68/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colchester 25% | Draw 24% | Salford City 50%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Colchester win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colchester 44%, Salford City 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Colchester's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Salford City's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Salford City arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 1.01. Form was overturned, with Colchester winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.