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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Oldham cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Colchester.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Oldham beat Colchester 1-3 at Colchester Community Stadium, Regular Season - 41, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Colchester 1.25 xG and Oldham 1.00 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Oldham outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colchester attack 1.07 / defence 0.81 against Oldham attack 1.07 / defence 0.96, drawn from 85/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Colchester 42% | Draw 28% | Oldham 30%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Oldham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colchester 31%, Oldham 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Colchester's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Oldham's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Colchester 1.38 PPG, Oldham 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oldham win broke the near-deadlock. Colchester (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Oldham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights