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Shock result as Notts County defy the odds to beat Colchester 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Notts County beat Colchester 0-1 at Colchester Community Stadium, Regular Season - 45, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Colchester 1.59 xG and Notts County 1.09 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Colchester fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colchester attack 1.15 / defence 0.86 against Notts County attack 1.06 / defence 1.10, drawn from 90/90 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Colchester 49% | Draw 25% | Notts County 26%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Notts County win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colchester 34%, Notts County 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Colchester's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Notts County's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Colchester 1.44 PPG, Notts County 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Notts County win broke the near-deadlock. Colchester (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Notts County (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights