🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Colchester edge out Morecambe 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Colchester beat Morecambe 1-0 at JobServe Community Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Colchester 1.26 xG and Morecambe 0.92 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Morecambe landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colchester attack 0.90 / defence 0.86 against Morecambe attack 0.92 / defence 1.07, drawn from 72/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Colchester 43% | Draw 31% | Morecambe 26%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colchester 44%, Morecambe 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Colchester's trading profile (71 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Morecambe's trading profile (71 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Colchester 1.07 PPG, Morecambe 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Colchester win broke the near-deadlock. Colchester (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Morecambe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights