Colchester 1-0 Harrogate Town – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Harrogate Town at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Colchester vs Harrogate Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Harrogate Town travel to JobServe Community Stadium to take on Colchester. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 October 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Colchester have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Colchester, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Colchester have posted 0W 1D 3L at JobServe Community Stadium — 0.25 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.25 lags behind their overall 1.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at JobServe Community Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Harrogate Town stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 League Two matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Harrogate Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Harrogate Town's away record: 3W 1D 1L from 5 road trips in League Two this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Harrogate Town are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Colchester trading profile (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
Harrogate Town trading profile (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Colchester 40% versus Harrogate Town 70%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Colchester 20% | Harrogate Town 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colchester 0.71 xG and Harrogate Town 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colchester attack 0.596 / defence 1.271 | Harrogate Town attack 1.108 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 0.979 / away 1.081. Colchester's attack strength of 0.596 is below the league average — the 0.71 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Harrogate Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing Colchester's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Colchester games / 11 Harrogate Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Colchester 15% | Draw 30% | Harrogate Town 54%. Fair-value odds: Colchester 6.67 | Draw 3.33 | Harrogate Town 1.85. Harrogate Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Harrogate Town at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Harrogate Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Colchester 25% | Harrogate Town 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colchester vs Harrogate Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: JobServe Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colchester 15% | Draw 30% | Harrogate Town 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 42% | xG Colchester 0.71 / Harrogate Town 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Colchester attack 0.596 / def 1.271 | Harrogate Town attack 1.108 / def 1.222 | league avg home 0.979 / away 1.081 • Poisson stance: Harrogate Town (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Colchester xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Harrogate Town xG
42%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Colchester vs Harrogate Town kick off?
Colchester vs Harrogate Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at JobServe Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Colchester vs Harrogate Town?
Colchester 1 - 0 Harrogate Town.
Where is Colchester vs Harrogate Town being played?
The match is being played at JobServe Community Stadium.
What competition is Colchester vs Harrogate Town part of?
Colchester vs Harrogate Town is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Colchester vs Harrogate Town?
Our statistical model gives Colchester a 15% chance of winning, Harrogate Town a 54% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Harrogate Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Colchester vs Harrogate Town?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Colchester and Harrogate Town will score (BTTS).
Will Colchester vs Harrogate Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Colchester and Harrogate Town?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Colchester and Harrogate Town in?
Colchester (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Harrogate Town (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Colchester's attack rating (0.60) and Harrogate Town's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 0.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Harrogate Town's attack versus Colchester's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 0-2 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Harrogate Town Win
15%
6.61
30%
3.28
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.4%
Away win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Colchester xG
Total xG
2.24
1.52
Harrogate Town xG
6.61
15%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
49%
2.04
Win to Nil
3%
30.36
27%
3.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 16.3 | 12.4 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Colchester vs Harrogate Town?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Colchester and Harrogate Town expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Colchester and 1.52 for Harrogate Town, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Colchester vs Harrogate Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Colchester come into this having played 10 games, going 2W 4D 4L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Colchester is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Harrogate Town sit at 1.90 PPG from 10 outings (5W 4D 1L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Harrogate Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Harrogate Town carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of Colchester — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Colchester's home form reads 0W 1D 3L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.25 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.00 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Harrogate Town have taken 1.75 points per game from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Harrogate Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Colchester are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Harrogate Town are on 2.00 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Harrogate Town in 70%.
Last 10 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colchester
Blended
Harrogate Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Colchester and Harrogate Town in coming into this match?
Colchester have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 games (1.00 PPG), while Harrogate Town have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Colchester at home or Harrogate Town away?
Harrogate Town's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Colchester at home: 0.25 PPG; Harrogate Town away: 1.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Colchester and Harrogate Town runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Colchester's record when hosting Harrogate Town specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Colchester
1
Draws
4
Harrogate Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Colchester and Harrogate Town?
From 10 meetings on record, Colchester have won 5, Harrogate Town have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Colchester and Harrogate Town last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Harrogate Town 1-0 Colchester.
Who has won more matches between Colchester and Harrogate Town?
Colchester have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Colchester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Harrogate Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Colchester 25%, Harrogate Town 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Colchester) and 75% (Harrogate Town).
On the defensive side: Colchester have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colchester home games / Harrogate Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Colchester play Harrogate Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Colchester's recent matches and 75% of Harrogate Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Colchester vs Harrogate Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Colchester's recent games and 75% of Harrogate Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Colchester and Harrogate Town tend to score early?
Colchester have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Harrogate Town in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Colchester defy the odds to beat Harrogate Town 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colchester beat Harrogate Town 1-0 at JobServe Community Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colchester 0.71 xG and Harrogate Town 1.52 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Harrogate Town landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colchester attack 0.60 / defence 1.27 against Harrogate Town attack 1.11 / defence 1.22, drawn from 10/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colchester 15% | Draw 30% | Harrogate Town 54%, with Harrogate Town to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Colchester win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colchester 20%, Harrogate Town 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Colchester's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Harrogate Town's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Harrogate Town arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Colchester winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Colchester (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.