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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Colchester cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Harrogate Town.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Colchester beat Harrogate Town 3-1 at Colchester Community Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Colchester 1.61 xG and Harrogate Town 1.15 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Colchester beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colchester attack 1.15 / defence 1.07 against Harrogate Town attack 0.91 / defence 1.05, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Colchester 48% | Draw 25% | Harrogate Town 27%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colchester 34%, Harrogate Town 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Colchester's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Harrogate Town's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Colchester 1.40 PPG, Harrogate Town 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Colchester win broke the near-deadlock. Colchester (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights