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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Colchester cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Gillingham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Colchester beat Gillingham 2-0 at JobServe Community Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Colchester 1.10 xG and Gillingham 0.80 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Colchester beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colchester attack 0.97 / defence 0.83 against Gillingham attack 0.81 / defence 0.89, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Colchester 42% | Draw 33% | Gillingham 26%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colchester 47%, Gillingham 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Colchester's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Gillingham's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Colchester 1.03 PPG, Gillingham 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Colchester win broke the near-deadlock. Colchester (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Gillingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights