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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Colchester edge out Fleetwood Town 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Colchester beat Fleetwood Town 2-1 at Colchester Community Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Colchester 1.27 xG and Fleetwood Town 0.78 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colchester attack 1.13 / defence 0.82 against Fleetwood Town attack 0.78 / defence 0.88, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Colchester 48% | Draw 29% | Fleetwood Town 23%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colchester 34%, Fleetwood Town 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Colchester's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Fleetwood Town's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Colchester 1.49 PPG, Fleetwood Town 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Colchester win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights