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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Colchester run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Fleetwood Town.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Colchester beat Fleetwood Town 3-0 at JobServe Community Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Colchester 1.49 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.00 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Colchester beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fleetwood Town landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colchester attack 0.99 / defence 0.82 against Fleetwood Town attack 1.12 / defence 1.17, drawn from 82/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Colchester 48% | Draw 26% | Fleetwood Town 25%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colchester 43%, Fleetwood Town 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Colchester's trading profile (82 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Fleetwood Town's trading profile (82 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Colchester 1.22 PPG, Fleetwood Town 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Colchester win broke the near-deadlock. Colchester (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights