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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Colchester and Doncaster share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Colchester and Doncaster finished level at 1-1 at JobServe Community Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Colchester 1.29 xG and Doncaster 0.96 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colchester attack 1.00 / defence 0.77 against Doncaster attack 1.07 / defence 0.98, drawn from 67/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Colchester 43% | Draw 30% | Doncaster 27%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colchester 46%, Doncaster 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Colchester's trading profile (67 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Doncaster's trading profile (67 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Doncaster arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights