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Shock result as Cambridge United defy the odds to beat Colchester 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambridge United beat Colchester 1-2 at Colchester Community Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Colchester 1.60 xG and Cambridge United 0.93 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cambridge United outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colchester attack 0.94 / defence 0.86 against Cambridge United attack 0.98 / defence 1.31, drawn from 49/3 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Colchester 52% | Draw 27% | Cambridge United 21%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Cambridge United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colchester 33%, Cambridge United 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Colchester's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Cambridge United's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Colchester arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.86. Form was overturned, with Cambridge United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Colchester (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cambridge United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights