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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Colchester run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Barnet.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Colchester beat Barnet 4-1 at Colchester Community Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Colchester 1.16 xG and Barnet 0.84 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Colchester beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colchester attack 1.10 / defence 0.81 against Barnet attack 0.88 / defence 0.84, drawn from 77/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Colchester 43% | Draw 30% | Barnet 26%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colchester 28%, Barnet 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Colchester's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Barnet's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Colchester 1.47 PPG, Barnet 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Colchester win broke the near-deadlock. Colchester (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm. Barnet (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights