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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Chesterfield and Walsall share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at SMH Group Stadium, Regular Season - 30, as Chesterfield and Walsall drew 2-2 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chesterfield 1.22 xG and Walsall 1.11 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Walsall outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chesterfield attack 1.17 / defence 0.88 against Walsall attack 1.04 / defence 0.82, drawn from 74/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chesterfield 38% | Draw 28% | Walsall 33%, with Chesterfield to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chesterfield 53%, Walsall 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chesterfield's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Walsall's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chesterfield 1.50 PPG, Walsall 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Chesterfield (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Walsall (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights