Chesterfield vs Tranmere – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Chesterfield's attack rating (0.85) and Tranmere's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Tranmere's attack (0.80x) against Chesterfield's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 18/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chesterfield Win
38%
2.60
29%
3.44
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Chesterfield xG
Total xG
2.41
1.14
Tranmere xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
12%
8.16
9%
10.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.3 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.0 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chesterfield vs Tranmere?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Chesterfield and Tranmere expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Chesterfield and 1.14 for Tranmere, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Chesterfield vs Tranmere?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.