Chesterfield 1-1 Swindon Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Swindon Town at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chesterfield vs Swindon Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Chesterfield and Swindon Town meet at SMH Group Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Friday 9 August 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Swindon Town have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W W L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Swindon Town haven't played a League Two game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Swindon Town's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chesterfield 1.49 xG and Swindon Town 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chesterfield attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Swindon Town attack 0.957 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.383. Data: 0 Chesterfield games / 46 Swindon Town games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Chesterfield 37% | Draw 24% | Swindon Town 39%. Fair-value odds: Chesterfield 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | Swindon Town 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Swindon Town at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Swindon Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chesterfield vs Swindon Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: SMH Group Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 9 Aug 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chesterfield 37% | Draw 24% | Swindon Town 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Chesterfield 1.49 / Swindon Town 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Chesterfield attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Swindon Town attack 0.957 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Swindon Town (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Chesterfield xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Swindon Town xG
61%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chesterfield vs Swindon Town kick off?
Chesterfield vs Swindon Town kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 9 August 2024 at SMH Group Stadium.
What was the final score in Chesterfield vs Swindon Town?
Chesterfield 1 - 1 Swindon Town.
Where is Chesterfield vs Swindon Town being played?
The match is being played at SMH Group Stadium.
What competition is Chesterfield vs Swindon Town part of?
Chesterfield vs Swindon Town is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Chesterfield vs Swindon Town?
Our statistical model gives Chesterfield a 37% chance of winning, Swindon Town a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Swindon Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chesterfield vs Swindon Town?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Chesterfield and Swindon Town will score (BTTS).
Will Chesterfield vs Swindon Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chesterfield and Swindon Town?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chesterfield and Swindon Town in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Swindon Town (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Chesterfield's attack rating (0.85) and Swindon Town's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Swindon Town's attack (0.96x) against Chesterfield's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 0/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Swindon Town Win
37%
2.68
24%
4.13
39%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Chesterfield xG
Total xG
3.02
1.52
Swindon Town xG
2.68
37%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
2.60
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
8%
12.30
9%
11.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.1 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chesterfield vs Swindon Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Chesterfield and Swindon Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Chesterfield and 1.52 for Swindon Town, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Chesterfield vs Swindon Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chesterfield
Pre-Season
Swindon Town
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chesterfield have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Swindon Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Chesterfield
1
Draws
2
Swindon Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chesterfield and Swindon Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Chesterfield have won 1, Swindon Town have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chesterfield and Swindon Town last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Swindon Town 1-2 Chesterfield.
Who has won more matches between Chesterfield and Swindon Town?
Swindon Town have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chesterfield home games / Swindon Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Chesterfield and Swindon Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chesterfield and Swindon Town finished level at 1-1 at SMH Group Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chesterfield 1.49 xG and Swindon Town 1.52 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chesterfield attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Swindon Town attack 0.96 / defence 1.08, drawn from 0/46 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chesterfield 37% | Draw 24% | Swindon Town 39%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.