Chesterfield 1-1 Salford City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Salford City at 40%, yet in-form Chesterfield provide a compelling counter-argument — this Chesterfield vs Salford City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chesterfield host Salford City at SMH Group Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 August 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Chesterfield have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Chesterfield have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Salford City — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Salford City have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in League Two this season, Salford City have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Chesterfield carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chesterfield 1.05 xG and Salford City 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chesterfield attack 0.837 / defence 1.127 | Salford City attack 0.819 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.314. Data: 2 Chesterfield games / 48 Salford City games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Chesterfield 32% | Draw 28% | Salford City 40%. Fair-value odds: Chesterfield 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Salford City 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Salford City at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Chesterfield (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Salford City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chesterfield vs Salford City | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: SMH Group Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chesterfield 32% | Draw 28% | Salford City 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Chesterfield 1.05 / Salford City 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Chesterfield attack 0.837 / def 1.127 | Salford City attack 0.819 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Salford City (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Chesterfield xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Salford City xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chesterfield vs Salford City kick off?
Chesterfield vs Salford City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at SMH Group Stadium.
What was the final score in Chesterfield vs Salford City?
Chesterfield 1 - 1 Salford City.
Where is Chesterfield vs Salford City being played?
The match is being played at SMH Group Stadium.
What competition is Chesterfield vs Salford City part of?
Chesterfield vs Salford City is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Chesterfield vs Salford City?
Our statistical model gives Chesterfield a 32% chance of winning, Salford City a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Salford City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chesterfield vs Salford City?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Chesterfield and Salford City will score (BTTS).
Will Chesterfield vs Salford City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chesterfield and Salford City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chesterfield and Salford City in?
Chesterfield (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W. Salford City (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Chesterfield's attack rating (0.84) and Salford City's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Salford City's attack versus Chesterfield's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/48 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
32%
3.14
28%
3.51
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Chesterfield xG
Total xG
2.27
1.21
Salford City xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
9%
10.55
14%
7.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 12.6 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chesterfield vs Salford City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Chesterfield and Salford City expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Chesterfield and 1.21 for Salford City, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Chesterfield vs Salford City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 2 outings, Chesterfield have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 1W 1D 0L record — D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Chesterfield, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Salford City's form line: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, 0.50 PPG, last five L-D. It's still early in the season for Salford City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Chesterfield are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Salford City.
Goals in Recent Form
Chesterfield are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Salford City are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Chesterfield's scoring rate against Salford City's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Salford City in 0%.
Defensively: Chesterfield have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Salford City in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chesterfield
Early Season
Salford City
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chesterfield and Salford City in coming into this match?
Chesterfield have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Salford City have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have Chesterfield or Salford City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chesterfield have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Salford City in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 27 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Chesterfield go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Mar 2025, when Chesterfield won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chesterfield's record when hosting Salford City specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Chesterfield
1
Draws
0
Salford City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chesterfield and Salford City?
From 4 meetings on record, Chesterfield have won 3, Salford City have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chesterfield and Salford City last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2026, when Salford City 0-1 Chesterfield.
Who has won more matches between Chesterfield and Salford City?
Chesterfield have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chesterfield home games / Salford City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chesterfield play Salford City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Chesterfield's recent matches and 0% of Salford City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chesterfield vs Salford City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Chesterfield's recent games and 0% of Salford City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chesterfield and Salford City tend to score early?
Chesterfield have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Salford City in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chesterfield and Salford City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chesterfield and Salford City finished level at 1-1 at SMH Group Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chesterfield 1.05 xG and Salford City 1.21 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chesterfield attack 0.84 / defence 1.13 against Salford City attack 0.82 / defence 0.86, drawn from 2/48 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Chesterfield 32% | Draw 28% | Salford City 40%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chesterfield 50%, Salford City 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Chesterfield arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Chesterfield managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Salford City scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.