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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

League Two · Regular Season - 10

Kick-off

Sat 27 Sep 2025

15:00

Venue

SMH Group Stadium

Competition

League Two

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Chesterfield Win

54%

Chesterfield

1.87

24%

Draw

4.22

23%

Newport County

4.38

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.2%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

10.7%

Home win

2 – 1

9.8%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.74

Chesterfield xG

Total xG

2.79

1.05

Newport County xG

54%
24%
23%
ChesterfieldDrawNewport County

1.87

54%

Home win

4.22

24%

Draw

4.38

23%

Away win

Goals Markets

77%

Over 1.5

1.30

23%

Under 1.5

4.35

53%

Over 2.5

1.89

47%

Under 2.5

2.13

31%

Over 3.5

3.23

69%

Under 3.5

1.45

15%

Over 4.5

6.67

85%

Under 4.5

1.18

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

54%

BTTS Yes

1.87

46%

BTTS No

2.15

Clean Sheet

35%

Chesterfield

2.86

18%

Newport County

5.69

Win to Nil

19%

Chesterfield

5.34

4%

Newport County

24.92

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.2 6.5 3.4 1.2 0.3 0.1
1 10.7 11.2 5.9 2.1 0.5 0.1
2 9.3 9.8 5.1 1.8 0.5 0.1
3 5.4 5.7 3.0 1.0 0.3 0.1
4 2.3 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.1
5 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.2

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.738
λ Away (xG) 1.050
Total xG 2.788
League avg home goals 1.249
League avg away goals 1.151
Chesterfield attack strength 1.200
Chesterfield defence strength 1.017
Newport County attack strength 0.897
Newport County defence strength 1.159
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 55 / 55