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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Chesterfield and Harrogate Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chesterfield and Harrogate Town finished level at 1-1 at SMH Group Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chesterfield 1.58 xG and Harrogate Town 0.76 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chesterfield attack 1.21 / defence 0.94 against Harrogate Town attack 0.68 / defence 1.03, drawn from 76/77 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chesterfield 57% | Draw 25% | Harrogate Town 18%, with Chesterfield to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chesterfield 54%, Harrogate Town 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chesterfield's trading profile (77 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Harrogate Town's trading profile (77 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Chesterfield arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights