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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Crewe cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Chesterfield.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crewe beat Chesterfield 1-3 at SMH Group Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chesterfield 1.28 xG and Crewe 0.89 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Crewe outscored their 0.89 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chesterfield attack 1.21 / defence 1.05 against Crewe attack 0.79 / defence 0.82, drawn from 31/79 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chesterfield 45% | Draw 30% | Crewe 25%, with Chesterfield to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Crewe win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chesterfield 55%, Crewe 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chesterfield's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Crewe's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chesterfield 1.35 PPG, Crewe 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crewe win broke the near-deadlock. Chesterfield (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Crewe (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights