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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Chesterfield run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Colchester.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chesterfield beat Colchester 3-0 at SMH Group Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chesterfield 1.34 xG and Colchester 0.96 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Chesterfield beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Colchester landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chesterfield attack 1.16 / defence 0.90 against Colchester attack 0.92 / defence 0.95, drawn from 80/79 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chesterfield 46% | Draw 28% | Colchester 27%, with Chesterfield to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chesterfield 52%, Colchester 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chesterfield's trading profile (79 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Colchester's trading profile (79 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chesterfield 1.49 PPG, Colchester 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chesterfield win broke the near-deadlock. Chesterfield (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Colchester (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights