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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Chesterfield edge out Carlisle 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chesterfield beat Carlisle 2-1 at SMH Group Stadium, Regular Season - 40, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chesterfield 1.56 xG and Carlisle 0.81 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chesterfield attack 1.08 / defence 1.15 against Carlisle attack 0.66 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chesterfield 55% | Draw 25% | Carlisle 19%, with Chesterfield to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chesterfield 55%, Carlisle 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chesterfield's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Carlisle's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Chesterfield arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights