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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Chesterfield run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Bromley.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chesterfield beat Bromley 3-0 at SMH Group Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chesterfield 1.12 xG and Bromley 1.29 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Chesterfield beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bromley landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chesterfield attack 0.88 / defence 1.05 against Bromley attack 1.07 / defence 0.98, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chesterfield 31% | Draw 29% | Bromley 39%, with Bromley to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Chesterfield win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chesterfield 54%, Bromley 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chesterfield's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Bromley's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chesterfield 1.38 PPG, Bromley 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chesterfield win broke the near-deadlock. Chesterfield (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Bromley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights