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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cheltenham and Port Vale share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at EV Charger Points Stadium, Regular Season - 18, as Cheltenham and Port Vale drew 1-1 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cheltenham 0.89 xG and Port Vale 1.17 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cheltenham attack 0.87 / defence 1.06 against Port Vale attack 0.89 / defence 0.85, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cheltenham 27% | Draw 31% | Port Vale 42%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cheltenham 48%, Port Vale 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cheltenham's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Port Vale's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cheltenham 1.03 PPG, Port Vale 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights