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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cheltenham and Harrogate Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Whaddon Road, Regular Season - 20, as Cheltenham and Harrogate Town drew 1-1 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cheltenham 1.15 xG and Harrogate Town 1.05 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cheltenham attack 0.81 / defence 0.94 against Harrogate Town attack 0.90 / defence 1.04, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cheltenham 38% | Draw 30% | Harrogate Town 33%, with Cheltenham to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cheltenham 46%, Harrogate Town 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cheltenham's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Harrogate Town's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cheltenham 1.23 PPG, Harrogate Town 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights