🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Cheltenham edge out Chesterfield 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cheltenham beat Chesterfield 1-0 at EV Charger Points Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cheltenham 1.61 xG and Chesterfield 1.48 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Chesterfield landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cheltenham attack 1.10 / defence 1.24 against Chesterfield attack 1.06 / defence 1.12, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cheltenham 40% | Draw 26% | Chesterfield 34%, with Cheltenham to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cheltenham 52%, Chesterfield 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cheltenham's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Chesterfield's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cheltenham 1.30 PPG, Chesterfield 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cheltenham win broke the near-deadlock. Cheltenham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Chesterfield (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights